Day 15 of 21

I entered three trades today with 2 contracts trying to peel off 1 early with a small profit and let the second one ride a little. I did well with the second contract on the first trade being the only loss. Net +22 for the day.

Day 14 of 21

I took 5 trades today for a net +4 result.

Trading in Alabama

I have been in Alabama this week visiting with Anita's family. I decided to work on a mobile trading station utilizing an older Dell laptop that we were not using anymore. I reloaded XP and stripped it clean of all non trading utilities. It took me most of the week but I was able to finally trade the short xmas eve trading schedule (9:50AM-14:30PM Sydney time).

Took two trades for a net of +8 points.

Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!!!!

Day 12 of 21

So you want to be a trader....

I found this blog post that decribes what you will be up against if you want to trade for a living. Needless to say it is not as easy as it looks.

Against the Odds

Day 11 0f 21

Took 10 trades with only 3 winners but ended up net +22. Again, it's about controlling the losses and keeping them small. I am still having trouble keeping hard stops in place. This is going to burn me sooner or later. I have enough capital in the account to now trade 2 contracts at once. I would like to be able to book enough profits on the first contract to let the second one play out with a wide stop. I need to concentrate on entries that have concrete stop ideas.

A GDP report came out (11:30) while price was hovering around R1 (4687). This provided the opportunity for two good short trades which provided for most of todays profit.

Day 10 of 21

I took 4 trades today with only one being a winner but ended up net +5. That is what happens when you keep the losses small. I am still moving stops out to protect a trade. Today it was a mid day trade that took me through the whole lunch hour. This traded ended at -2 but could have been much worse.

Day 9 of 21

Took nine trades for a net gain of 7 points. The first trade and last trade sandwiched a lot of chop trades which wore me out. I know better than to trade the mid day action. First day back trading from weekends are bad as I am anxious to get back into it.

One good thing was that I did not take any big losses. Although I had more losing trades than winners (4 to 5) I ended up with a net gain.

Day 8 of 21

Well, the bad news is I broke the only simple rule I had for the current 21 day plan. Instead of limiting my daily trading activity to 1 trade, I was compelled to make 3 more trades for a total of 4 trades. First was a BE trade after giving back over 10 pts. Second was a loss of 11 points after moving the IPS from -4 to -11. The third and fourth resulted in +13 and +9 pts of profit.
Net result +11 points.

OK, damage done, what can we learn?

#1 Trade-I did not feel good about giving back over 10 pts of profit but I really did not have a good reason to exit so other than starting with a fairly wide stop I can't find much fault in this one.

#2 Trade- Not only did I break my 1 trade rule, I moved my stop away to avoid a loss and ended up with an even bigger loss. Lesson to re enforce here is DON'T MOVE STOPS AWAY!

You will have plenty more opportunities.

#3 Trade- Entry was leftover bad vibes from trade #2...chasing the market...enough said. Fortunately this one kept moving in the right direction and I had a good feeling where it was going to end, the PP, and it did. Exit was nearly bottom tick.

#4 Trade- Best one by far. The conformation bar after reaching PP was a great entry, IPS only 5 pts allowed me to feel confident even when price retraced to my entry. I was stopped out at a well placed stop which locked me into 9 pts while giving me the opportunity for what I really thought would be more, even in hindsight.

Day 7 of 21

Over night session high and low very close to prev day high and low. I was looking for a move to the top of the range and some sort of retracement.

Price moved up as anticipated and I entered a short just above resistance levels without confirmation (I did get a volume spike). I was hoping to get some room for my stop. Stop set at +8 put it two ticks above R1. As price continued to move up I was worried about getting stopped out at high tick so I looked at a higher time frame (chart above) for a better level and found one at 4660....+16 ticks away!!!

Well, in hind sight my initial stop at 4652 would have held. I did not get an obvious signal to exit so I was stopped out as I moved my stop down at each intermediate high for a +5 end result.

Only regret was not waiting for a confirmation move to get in.

Day 6 of 21

LH and LL in the overnight session with the overnight close near the low. I was expecting a gap fill to the upside.

My expectations of a gap fill led me to jump the gun on an approach to some overnight resistance levels which I expected to break but did not. It actually tested that level 4 times without breaking through...highly unusual...that is trading! Result...stopped out for -8 points.

Day 5 of 21

Expecting a range bound day after yesterday's big down trend.

Took a short at ONH and PP resistance matched with a volume spike. BHP and CBA were heading lower as well. Resistance did not hold. Stopped out for -4 points.

Day 4 of 21

Need patience today as the first trading day of the week sometimes means trouble as I get eager after two days off.

Strong trend down right out the shoot. Definitely had to practice patience as I waited for a pause and some clues. The pause produced a triangle which I felt would move south so I entered near closer to the top to minimize my initial stop which I wanted to keep above the PP (purple line).

Exited at the volume spike and prev day low for +19 points. Market kept moving lower after a short pause (not shown) but I was happy with the trade none the less.

Day 3 of 21

Premarket levels show a HH and a LL in the overnight session for a range of 59 points. The AOP was 4745.

I missed a good down move about 10:10 when small divergence showed up on the tick chart at a confluence of resistance (AOP, ONL and S2). I tried to get in on a suspected test of the same level but was a little early and my rigid stop of max 8 was 2 points to tight. The white dots show where I would have liked to get out if I had managed to stay in the trade.

Trade results: S1 @ 4741, IS @ 4749, SO @ 4749, -8 points

Day 2 of 21

Premarket levels show the previous day and overnight session contained within a 50 pt range with a slightly LH and LL in the ON session. AOP=4764 nearly equaling the prev day close.

I had the music playing and I was feeling relaxed waiting for an opportunity to present itself. I missed the bounce off the prev day low because I had nothing showing confirmation. At about 10:30 triangles started forming on price, tick and BHP so my trigger finger started getting itchy.

Then I saw price move up, which by itself does not mean much to me, and out of the corner of my eye I see the S&P pop up hard after being very quiet. I see BHP break up (see blue marker on chart) and I go long 1 @ 4776 without much thought. Immediately doubt creeps in (what about tick? where do I put my stop?...) and the heart rate goes up. I leave the stop maxed out at the preset 8 pts (4768) and start thinking about how to get out. I see the volume spike fairly quickly and think about how I gave up all that profit yesterday. I'm out when I see it pause just above the morning high for +10 pts. The heart rate comes back down!!!!

What I liked:

Relaxed going into the trade.

Prepared my premise for a possible trade.

Pulled the trigger without hesitation.

Stuck to my plan of 1 max trade.

Profit.

What I need to improve:

Stay relaxed during the trade.

Need more thought on stop placement before placing trade.

Fail safe plan when trade does not feel good. (ex. trail stop using last bar on tick chart)

Day 1 of 21

Premarket levels....strong trend overnight with a HH and HL being registered. Looking for a retracement.
I had some relaxing music playing in the back ground and I worked on staying relaxed and patient as the market moved straight up through the overnight high.

When I saw that first volume spike I thought the top maybe in but was worried about going against such a strong trend without any other confirmations...so I stayed patient. As the market moved down I was looking for support and a reason to go long and test the high. I thought I might get something at 4788 (ONH) but when it went to test its short term low at 4784 for the 3rd time I started thinking continuation down. Ticks were trending down and below zero, CBA was trending down and BHP had just broken a upward trendline to the down side (see chart below) so I pulled the trigger for a 1 lot entry short at 4783. I wanted to keep my stop at 8 points or less so I chose the ONH and a minor top at 4788 and added 2. I did not take much heat as it steadlily moved lower. I moved the stop just above breakeven when a lower minor top formed.

At this point I was looking for a reason to exit (volume or tick spike?). The tick divergence was on my mind and for good reason as I ended up giving back 10 points of open profit. In hind site I could have used the divergence and the small volume spike (noted on chart) as reason to exit but such is trading. Overall I am happy with day 1 of 21. All of my goals were met with a near break even trade (-3) as the result.

The next 21 days.

Well that wraps up 21 days of observation only mode...no trading of the SPI. I feel good about my accomplishment and I am looking forward to more of the same with some high probability trades sprinkled in. My goal for the next 21 trading days is to continue absorbing the markets while adding no more than 1 trade sequence per day. Hopefully I will be patient and wait for a high probablity setup but my only requirement will be the limit of 1 trade sequence per day. I am eager to see how this disciplinary step developes my trading skills after the 21 days.

Dec 1 Premarket levels and results

Looked good but...

Volume spike as price approached the overnight high with divergence on CBA and BHP looked like a good shorting opportunity but as the charts below show it was not the case. That is why it is always good to wait for that confirmation bar.

Nov 30 Premarket levels

LL and HH in Fri/Sat overnight session.

Digestion of Dubia credit problems on tap.

AOP=4624

Small setback

It has been an eventful holiday week and I am looking forward to getting back to a more normal routine. There are two more days remaining in my SPI observation mode only routine. The week had me trying to squeeze the market in while having a houseful of guests. I did have a setback of sorts when on Friday I had a rare oportunity to trade the emini during the day. I found myself in my old routine of overtrading (22 RT's for -$458) and getting caught up in the excitement, so much so that I still have 1 long position open because I missed the early holiday close. That position and several forex positions opened a few weeks ago will need to be closed so I have a focused mind on the NEXT 21 day training routine.

Nov 25 Premarket levels

LH and LL in overnight session.

Look out below!

You could sense something big was going to happen when all that volume showed up around 10:40 without price responding. Price ended up moving from resistance at the overnight high 4782 to the prev day low at 4693.

Nov 24 Premarket levels

HH and HL in overnight session
AOP=4765

Monday Blues

What looks like a good short at 4723 above turns out to be a loser below.